"Long before the pandemic hit, I was deeply concerned about loneliness. In the age of COVID-19, I’m worried that loneliness could deepen further, that we could see the physical distancing that we’re asked to observe translate into social distancing as we feel more and more disconnected from the people we need in our lives."
"Good feedback loops and data displays are critical. You have to start with data. If you can only quantify 10 percent of the problem right now, then start there. As more data comes in, you replace assumptions with knowledge. Then you need to apply your judgment.One of the most important things is keeping someone at your side who will challenge you to balance the quantitative and non quantitative inputs to your assessments, who will watch for gaps in your assessments."
“We argued in the original preprint version of this article on 17 July that Melbourne and Victoria should not waste the opportunity that the (then) 6-week lockdown presented and go hard and early.
By learning from the lessons on social and preventive measures to lower SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility (7,8,12,14), and specifically the lessons from NZ (3), Taiwan and the six Australian jurisdictions that have achieved elimination, Victoria could have increased its chances of also eliminating community transmission.”
University of Melbourne modelled several policy scenarios.
If we ease restrictions when the average number of cases over the previous fortnight is 25 (350 cases total) then it’s more likely than not that cases will get out of hand and restrictions will have to be reinstated to regain control and protect the health system.
Waiting until the average is 5 cases a fortnight – or 70 cases total - reduces the chance of increased restrictions before Christmas to just 3 in 100.