Thinking Ahead Institute reveals top fifteen extreme risks for investors | GARP

Non-financial threats loom larger, relative to economic or banking worries, according to the Thinking Ahead Institute.

Global temperature change ranks No. 1 on a list of 15 extreme risks compiled by the Thinking Ahead Institute (TAI). 

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The institute, a not-for-profit outgrowth of Willis Towers Watson Investments' Thinking Ahead Group, which dates back to 2002, raised the climate issue two places higher than it was in a 2013 ranking of “potential events that are very unlikely to occur but could have a significant impact on economic growth and asset returns should they happen.”

Currently placing second is global trade collapse, up from fifth in 2013, followed by a new entry, cyber warfare. Tim Hodgson, head of the Thinking Ahead Group, pointed to a general trend of “financial risks falling down the rankings and non-financial extreme risks growing in significance. Global temperature change becomes the highest-ranked risk due to our assessment of higher likelihood coupled with significant impact – in the extreme this would mean mass extinction.” Continue reading on GARP website. 
Operation Yellowhammer - HMG reasonable worst case planning assumptions | The Guardian

Operation Yellowhammer is the codename used by the UK Treasury for cross-government civil contingency planning for the possibility of a no-deal Brexit. In the event of exit with no-deal, the UK's unilateral departure from the EU could disrupt, for an unknown duration, many aspects of the relationship between the UK and European Union, including financial transfers, movement of people, trade, customs and other regulations. 

Operation Yellowhammer is intended to mitigate, within the UK, the effects of this disruption, and would be expected to run for approximately three months. It has been developed by the Civil Contingencies Secretariat (CCS), a department of the Cabinet Office responsible for emergency planning. When the UK ceases to be a member of the EU in October 2019, all rights and reciprocal arrangements with the EU end.

The attached document is the leaked report referred to in the Guardian article.

The Third Degree | Breakthrough
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Following Breakthrough’s widely-reported policy brief on Existential Climate-related Security Risk, this latest discussion paper provides supporting evidence for the contentious 3°C scenario. A 3°C scenario, developed in 2007 by US national security analysts, is reproduced in this paper highlighting a proven prescient in foreseeing some of the major socio-political events that have emerged in the last decade.

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